❓ A WA parliamentary question regarding the Department of Education's student number growth forecasting, including completion date, data sources, and specific suburb projections. The answer provides completion date, data sources and enrolment projections for public schools, but not population projections for 10-19 year olds by suburb.
AnsweredQoN 3448Legislative Assembly
QuestionView source ↗
In the Estimates hearings Minister Papalia advised that the Department of Education is reviewing its modelling for student number growth forecasting, and I ask: (a) When will this modelling be completed; (b) What data is the Department accessing to review its modelling; and (c) What are the current estimated projections for projected growth for 10-19 year olds through to 2026 for the following suburbs: (i) Scarborough; (ii) Innaloo-Doubleview; (iii) Wembley; (iv) Glendalough; (v) West Leederville; (vi) Subiaco; (vii) North Perth; (viii) Mount Hawthorn; (ix) Mount Lawley; (x) Leederville; (xi) Perth City; and (xii) Inglewood?
AnswerView source ↗
Answered
23 August 2018
Responded by
Minister representing the Minister for Education and Training
Response time
6 days
(a) The Department of Education revises student enrolment projections for all public schools annually. This work was completed early in August 2018.
(b) Student projections are prepared using the latest student enrolment data for public schools collected biannually through the Department’s student census. For schools in established areas, average year-to-year retention rates over the previous five years of actual enrolments are used to estimate projected enrolments. For schools in areas with significant residential growth, the student growth is estimated using the Department of Planning’s 2016-17 Urban Land Development Outlook, local government authority dwelling forecasts (where available) and 2016 Australian Bureau of Statistics data.
(c) The Department of Education does not produce the population projections for 10 to 19-year-olds by suburbs. Population projections are produced by the Department of Planning or local government authorities.
The Department of Education produces student enrolment projections for public primary and secondary schools. The 2018 actual enrolments and 2019–2021 calendar year projected enrolments are provided in the tables below for the schools that serve the localities listed in the question. The projections to 2026 are not provided publicly due to the increasing inaccuracy and data limitations for projections beyond three years.
(i)-(xii)
Public Primary School
Locality
(suburb or part-suburb) listed in question from which students can attend this school
2018 Actual Enrolment and
2019–2021 Projected Enrolments
(Kindergarten to Year 6 Students)
2018
2019
2020
2021
Scarborough Primary School
Scarborough
195
220
251
276
Doubleview Primary School
Doubleview, Scarborough
436
448
458
463
Lake Monger Primary School
Glendalough,
Wembley, West Leederville, Mount Hawthorn, Leederville
237
239
240
243
Wembley Primary School
Wembley
806
820
836
853
West Leederville Primary School
West Leederville, Leederville, Wembley, Subiaco
552
572
570
578
Subiaco Primary School
Subiaco, Wembley, Perth
661
693
698
719
Kyilla Primary School
North Perth
318
336
339
343
North Perth Primary School
North Perth, Leederville Mount Lawley
465
476
482
498
Mount Hawthorn Primary School
Mount Hawthorn, Leederville
884
899
912
928
Mount Lawley Primary School
Mount Lawley
529
539
543
557
Highgate Primary School
Perth, Mount Lawley
664
685
706
724
Inglewood Primary School
Inglewood
569
576
591
606
The secondary school projections assume that all Year 7 public students will attend their local public secondary school from 2020. These projections are indicative estimates only. The “grandfather clause” in the revised local-intake areas of Churchlands Senior High School, Mount Lawley Senior High School and Shenton College gazetted in the WA Government Gazette on 27 June 2017 allows children currently living within the existing local-intake areas of these school to have a choice to attend either their current local-intake school or their new local-intake area school from 2020. It is difficult for the Department to accurately assess how many of the children currently residing in the local-intake areas of these three secondary schools will choose to enrol at the new Inner City College.
Public Secondary School
Locality
(suburb or part-suburb) listed in question from which students can attend this school
2018 Actual Enrolment and
2019-2021 Projected Enrolments
(Years 7 to 12 Students)
2018
2019
2020
2021
Carine Senior High School
Innaloo, Scarborough, Doubleview
1 561
1 656
1 778
1 886
Churchlands Senior High School
Glendalough, Leederville, Wembley, Mount Hawthorn, Innaloo, West Leederville, Subiaco, Scarborough, Doubleview,
2 718
2 900
2 882
2 873
Inner City College
(planning name)
Subiaco, Glendalough, Mount Hawthorn, Leederville, West Leederville, Perth CBD
0
0
254
498
Mount Lawley Senior High School
Leederville, Wembley, Mount Hawthorn, West Leederville, Mount Lawley, North Perth, Perth, Subiaco, Inglewood
1 735
1 794
1 864
1 909
Shenton College
Wembley, Perth, Subiaco
2 080
2 206
2 269
2 299
Note:
1: There is only one public primary school in the suburb of West Leederville and there are no public schools in the suburb of Leederville.
2: There are no public schools in the suburb of Glendalough.
The McGowan Government has committed to review the planning methodology for new schools in WA so as to reduce the requirement to use transportable classrooms. The Department of Education is working with the Department of Finance – Building Management and Works and Department of Planning, Lands and Heritage to identify where improvements can be made to the planning framework.
(b) Student projections are prepared using the latest student enrolment data for public schools collected biannually through the Department’s student census. For schools in established areas, average year-to-year retention rates over the previous five years of actual enrolments are used to estimate projected enrolments. For schools in areas with significant residential growth, the student growth is estimated using the Department of Planning’s 2016-17 Urban Land Development Outlook, local government authority dwelling forecasts (where available) and 2016 Australian Bureau of Statistics data.
(c) The Department of Education does not produce the population projections for 10 to 19-year-olds by suburbs. Population projections are produced by the Department of Planning or local government authorities.
The Department of Education produces student enrolment projections for public primary and secondary schools. The 2018 actual enrolments and 2019–2021 calendar year projected enrolments are provided in the tables below for the schools that serve the localities listed in the question. The projections to 2026 are not provided publicly due to the increasing inaccuracy and data limitations for projections beyond three years.
(i)-(xii)
Public Primary School
Locality
(suburb or part-suburb) listed in question from which students can attend this school
2018 Actual Enrolment and
2019–2021 Projected Enrolments
(Kindergarten to Year 6 Students)
2018
2019
2020
2021
Scarborough Primary School
Scarborough
195
220
251
276
Doubleview Primary School
Doubleview, Scarborough
436
448
458
463
Lake Monger Primary School
Glendalough,
Wembley, West Leederville, Mount Hawthorn, Leederville
237
239
240
243
Wembley Primary School
Wembley
806
820
836
853
West Leederville Primary School
West Leederville, Leederville, Wembley, Subiaco
552
572
570
578
Subiaco Primary School
Subiaco, Wembley, Perth
661
693
698
719
Kyilla Primary School
North Perth
318
336
339
343
North Perth Primary School
North Perth, Leederville Mount Lawley
465
476
482
498
Mount Hawthorn Primary School
Mount Hawthorn, Leederville
884
899
912
928
Mount Lawley Primary School
Mount Lawley
529
539
543
557
Highgate Primary School
Perth, Mount Lawley
664
685
706
724
Inglewood Primary School
Inglewood
569
576
591
606
The secondary school projections assume that all Year 7 public students will attend their local public secondary school from 2020. These projections are indicative estimates only. The “grandfather clause” in the revised local-intake areas of Churchlands Senior High School, Mount Lawley Senior High School and Shenton College gazetted in the WA Government Gazette on 27 June 2017 allows children currently living within the existing local-intake areas of these school to have a choice to attend either their current local-intake school or their new local-intake area school from 2020. It is difficult for the Department to accurately assess how many of the children currently residing in the local-intake areas of these three secondary schools will choose to enrol at the new Inner City College.
Public Secondary School
Locality
(suburb or part-suburb) listed in question from which students can attend this school
2018 Actual Enrolment and
2019-2021 Projected Enrolments
(Years 7 to 12 Students)
2018
2019
2020
2021
Carine Senior High School
Innaloo, Scarborough, Doubleview
1 561
1 656
1 778
1 886
Churchlands Senior High School
Glendalough, Leederville, Wembley, Mount Hawthorn, Innaloo, West Leederville, Subiaco, Scarborough, Doubleview,
2 718
2 900
2 882
2 873
Inner City College
(planning name)
Subiaco, Glendalough, Mount Hawthorn, Leederville, West Leederville, Perth CBD
0
0
254
498
Mount Lawley Senior High School
Leederville, Wembley, Mount Hawthorn, West Leederville, Mount Lawley, North Perth, Perth, Subiaco, Inglewood
1 735
1 794
1 864
1 909
Shenton College
Wembley, Perth, Subiaco
2 080
2 206
2 269
2 299
Note:
1: There is only one public primary school in the suburb of West Leederville and there are no public schools in the suburb of Leederville.
2: There are no public schools in the suburb of Glendalough.
The McGowan Government has committed to review the planning methodology for new schools in WA so as to reduce the requirement to use transportable classrooms. The Department of Education is working with the Department of Finance – Building Management and Works and Department of Planning, Lands and Heritage to identify where improvements can be made to the planning framework.
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