❓ WA Treasurer responds to questions regarding the accuracy of population data used for budget and infrastructure planning, particularly concerning reliance on Medicare change of address data and its impact on GST revenue distribution and infrastructure needs assessment during a period of high economic growth.
AnsweredQoN 2430Legislative Assembly
QuestionView source ↗
(2) Can the Treasurer confirm that the research for determining interstate migration is based on Medicare changes of address?
(3) In times of economic growth, such as Western Australia’s 10 per cent plus annualised Gross Domestic Product (GDP), is the Medicare self-reporting by the young, male, affluent, mobile workforce demographic the most timely statistic to gauge changes in population needs?
(4) In times of economic growth such as Western Australia’s 10 per cent plus annualised GDP, is such growth explained (but under-reported) by a combination of interstate and international migration, student-visa and international backpacker employment at full capacity, and the failure of the federal GST system to curtail a booming cash economy?
(5) Should Western Australia's infrastructure needs and timeframes be re-evaluated with more timely population and workforce estimates?
(3) In times of economic growth, such as Western Australia’s 10 per cent plus annualised Gross Domestic Product (GDP), is the Medicare self-reporting by the young, male, affluent, mobile workforce demographic the most timely statistic to gauge changes in population needs?
(4) In times of economic growth such as Western Australia’s 10 per cent plus annualised GDP, is such growth explained (but under-reported) by a combination of interstate and international migration, student-visa and international backpacker employment at full capacity, and the failure of the federal GST system to curtail a booming cash economy?
(5) Should Western Australia's infrastructure needs and timeframes be re-evaluated with more timely population and workforce estimates?
AnswerView source ↗
Answered
14 August 2007
Response time
62 days
(1) The population projections used by the Department of Treasury and Finance (DTF) in the 2007?08 Budget are based on the Commonwealth Treasury's population projections for all States and Territories. These are provided to the State and Territories to (in part) enable them to derive estimates of the likely per capita distribution of Goods and Services Tax (GST) 'pool' payments from the Commonwealth. The Commonwealth Treasury commissions the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) to produce the projections.
For 2007-08 and 2008-09, overall population growth of 2.0% is presumed for each year. By inference, this would still be consistent with around 500 people moving to Western Australia in net terms (not just Perth).
Along with other parameters impacting on the State's budget position, the population projections will be reassessed at the time the mid-year review of the 2007-08 Budget is formulated (towards the end of this year).
(2) The ABS model for estimating interstate migration flows in intercensal periods is based on Medicare 'change of address' data.
While the model does not capture all actual interstate migration movements (mainly due to lapses in people filling in Medicare change of address forms), an ABS study released in 2006 found that Medicare data were still "...the best source for use in quarterly interstate migration estimates" (other alternatives investigated by the ABS included Australian Taxation Office records, Australia Post change of address data, and Australian Electoral Commission data).
(3) See answer for (2).
Revised population figures for Western Australia, based on the 2006 Census, will be known when the ABS releases estimated resident population data for the December quarter 2007 (in June 2008).
(4) Business investment has been a key driver of the State's recent strong domestic economic growth, responsible for 6.6 percentage points of the State's 10.2% growth in the year to the March quarter 2007. This largely reflects capital spending on resource?related projects, rather than the effects of population growth in the State.
(5) The Government is developing a State Infrastructure Strategy based on the best available data from a variety of sources.
While any evaluation of Western Australia's infrastructure needs and timeframes would (ideally) be best served by timely population and workforce estimates, DTF acknowledges the difficulties the ABS has in deriving accurate population estimates that are also timely.
Further, the ABS is the best placed to provide such estimates, due to its access to some of the Federal Government data sets used for deriving population estimates (in particular Medicare data and Australian Customs passenger arrival and departure data).
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For 2007-08 and 2008-09, overall population growth of 2.0% is presumed for each year. By inference, this would still be consistent with around 500 people moving to Western Australia in net terms (not just Perth).
Along with other parameters impacting on the State's budget position, the population projections will be reassessed at the time the mid-year review of the 2007-08 Budget is formulated (towards the end of this year).
(2) The ABS model for estimating interstate migration flows in intercensal periods is based on Medicare 'change of address' data.
While the model does not capture all actual interstate migration movements (mainly due to lapses in people filling in Medicare change of address forms), an ABS study released in 2006 found that Medicare data were still "...the best source for use in quarterly interstate migration estimates" (other alternatives investigated by the ABS included Australian Taxation Office records, Australia Post change of address data, and Australian Electoral Commission data).
(3) See answer for (2).
Revised population figures for Western Australia, based on the 2006 Census, will be known when the ABS releases estimated resident population data for the December quarter 2007 (in June 2008).
(4) Business investment has been a key driver of the State's recent strong domestic economic growth, responsible for 6.6 percentage points of the State's 10.2% growth in the year to the March quarter 2007. This largely reflects capital spending on resource?related projects, rather than the effects of population growth in the State.
(5) The Government is developing a State Infrastructure Strategy based on the best available data from a variety of sources.
While any evaluation of Western Australia's infrastructure needs and timeframes would (ideally) be best served by timely population and workforce estimates, DTF acknowledges the difficulties the ABS has in deriving accurate population estimates that are also timely.
Further, the ABS is the best placed to provide such estimates, due to its access to some of the Federal Government data sets used for deriving population estimates (in particular Medicare data and Australian Customs passenger arrival and departure data).
Notice: This document is created or edited using unregistered or evaluation copy of rtLib valid for testing or development purposes only. To use it for productive or any other purposes please register it. You may purchase the license on
http://www.rtlib.com
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