❓ A WA parliamentary question regarding concerns about underestimation of population figures in the Directions 2031 planning document and the Minister's response outlining the basis for the figures and planned updates.
AnsweredQoN 4957Legislative Assembly
QuestionView source ↗
In relation to the extremely low projected population figures included in the Government’s Directions 2031 planning document, I ask:
(a) what submissions, emails or correspondence has the Minister or his departments/agencies received regarding the under-estimation of population figures included in Directions 2031; and
(i) will the Minister table these documents; and
(ii) if not, why not;
(b) does the Minister accept that if his population growth figures are even more conservative that the conservative Australian Bureau of Statistics figures, his expected outcomes and proposals in Directions 2031 are unrealistic for a growing Western Australia; and
(c) what population figure does the Minister expect Perth and Western Australia to achieve in 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2031, and on what basis does the Minister accept these figures?
(a) what submissions, emails or correspondence has the Minister or his departments/agencies received regarding the under-estimation of population figures included in Directions 2031; and
(i) will the Minister table these documents; and
(ii) if not, why not;
(b) does the Minister accept that if his population growth figures are even more conservative that the conservative Australian Bureau of Statistics figures, his expected outcomes and proposals in Directions 2031 are unrealistic for a growing Western Australia; and
(c) what population figure does the Minister expect Perth and Western Australia to achieve in 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2031, and on what basis does the Minister accept these figures?
AnswerView source ↗
Answered
17 May 2011
Responded by
Minister for Planning
Response time
42 days
(a) The final
Directions 2031 and Beyond
report was released in August 2010 along with the two draft strategies for public comment: the Central Metropolitan Perth and the Outer Metropolitan Perth and Peel Sub-regional strategies. There were 116 submissions (excluding three late submissions) and 248 submissions (excluding two late submissions) received for the Central and Outer strategies, respectively. Altogether nearly 2000 comments were made and these were grouped into key-issue categories.
A very small proportion of the issues listed in the submissions for both draft strategies (less than 3%) made comments, expressed concern or requested further clarification on population projections.
(i) No
(ii) Submissions are currently being analysed by the Department of Planning. A summary report on all submissions received is due to be considered by the Western Australian Planning Commission (WAPC) and me in the coming months. This report will be made public by the WAPC later this year, and will directly address how the Central and Outer strategies relate to the projections by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
(b) The population forecasts for the Perth Metropolitan and Peel study area covered by
Directions 2031
are the projections endorsed by the WAPC in November 2005 and published in the demographic study
Western Australia Tomorrow
, which incorporated known demographic trends at the time.
The 72 different population projections prepared by the ABS for all States were released three years later in September 2008, some of which are discussed in the ABS publication - none of which are a forecast. The forecast occurs when the reader chooses which projection to use based on their understanding of the demographic trends driving each projection. Being newer projections, the ABS had knowledge of unexpected changes in demographic trends - namely fertility and overseas migration.
The Perth and Peel study area forecast for
Directions 2031
is based on the population forecast presented in
Western Australia Tomorrow
, except that
Directions 2031
spatially redistributes the population within Perth and Peel to formulate population and housing targets for local governments in accordance with the Connected City scenario. As such the
Directions 2031
strategy is a planning scenario which seeks to change the future that would result from the trend population forecast of how population settlement would occur within the city.
The WAPC in its continuous cycle of research is presently updating its population forecasts, and these will be made available in the third quarter of 2011. It is expected that the new
Western Australia Tomorrow
forecast will closely match 'Series B' ABS projections as both use an assumption for overseas migration that is significantly higher than any previous projection. Consequently
Directions 2031
will update its population and housing targets upon publication of new projections.
The change in character of overseas migration is reflected in both sets of projections, which anticipate the same strong economic growth that Western Australia has experienced in the past. Both are broadly aligned with the overseas migration assumption used in the Commonwealth's
Intergenerational Report 2010
. The widespread debate that the Intergenerational report created suggests that a future of high migration is not assured and as such it is not unreasonable to deem projections based on high migration as optimistic.
(c) Western Australia continues to experience strong population growth as the nation's fastest growing state: 2.1% for the year to the September quarter 2010.
The State's population projections are produced for the WAPC from the demographic expertise housed within the Department of Planning. The forthcoming update to
Western Australia Tomorrow
incorporates an improved population projection methodology and the most current demographic trends, with the final forecast to be released in the third quarter of 2011.
The as yet unpublished draft population forecast for the State by 2036 is 3.5 million, with improved projection methodology providing a likely expected range of population outcome between 3.3 and 3.7 million persons by 2036.
Notice: This document is created or edited using unregistered or evaluation copy of rtLib valid for testing or development purposes only. To use it for productive or any other purposes please register it. You may purchase the license on
http://www.rtlib.com
Directions 2031 and Beyond
report was released in August 2010 along with the two draft strategies for public comment: the Central Metropolitan Perth and the Outer Metropolitan Perth and Peel Sub-regional strategies. There were 116 submissions (excluding three late submissions) and 248 submissions (excluding two late submissions) received for the Central and Outer strategies, respectively. Altogether nearly 2000 comments were made and these were grouped into key-issue categories.
A very small proportion of the issues listed in the submissions for both draft strategies (less than 3%) made comments, expressed concern or requested further clarification on population projections.
(i) No
(ii) Submissions are currently being analysed by the Department of Planning. A summary report on all submissions received is due to be considered by the Western Australian Planning Commission (WAPC) and me in the coming months. This report will be made public by the WAPC later this year, and will directly address how the Central and Outer strategies relate to the projections by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
(b) The population forecasts for the Perth Metropolitan and Peel study area covered by
Directions 2031
are the projections endorsed by the WAPC in November 2005 and published in the demographic study
Western Australia Tomorrow
, which incorporated known demographic trends at the time.
The 72 different population projections prepared by the ABS for all States were released three years later in September 2008, some of which are discussed in the ABS publication - none of which are a forecast. The forecast occurs when the reader chooses which projection to use based on their understanding of the demographic trends driving each projection. Being newer projections, the ABS had knowledge of unexpected changes in demographic trends - namely fertility and overseas migration.
The Perth and Peel study area forecast for
Directions 2031
is based on the population forecast presented in
Western Australia Tomorrow
, except that
Directions 2031
spatially redistributes the population within Perth and Peel to formulate population and housing targets for local governments in accordance with the Connected City scenario. As such the
Directions 2031
strategy is a planning scenario which seeks to change the future that would result from the trend population forecast of how population settlement would occur within the city.
The WAPC in its continuous cycle of research is presently updating its population forecasts, and these will be made available in the third quarter of 2011. It is expected that the new
Western Australia Tomorrow
forecast will closely match 'Series B' ABS projections as both use an assumption for overseas migration that is significantly higher than any previous projection. Consequently
Directions 2031
will update its population and housing targets upon publication of new projections.
The change in character of overseas migration is reflected in both sets of projections, which anticipate the same strong economic growth that Western Australia has experienced in the past. Both are broadly aligned with the overseas migration assumption used in the Commonwealth's
Intergenerational Report 2010
. The widespread debate that the Intergenerational report created suggests that a future of high migration is not assured and as such it is not unreasonable to deem projections based on high migration as optimistic.
(c) Western Australia continues to experience strong population growth as the nation's fastest growing state: 2.1% for the year to the September quarter 2010.
The State's population projections are produced for the WAPC from the demographic expertise housed within the Department of Planning. The forthcoming update to
Western Australia Tomorrow
incorporates an improved population projection methodology and the most current demographic trends, with the final forecast to be released in the third quarter of 2011.
The as yet unpublished draft population forecast for the State by 2036 is 3.5 million, with improved projection methodology providing a likely expected range of population outcome between 3.3 and 3.7 million persons by 2036.
Notice: This document is created or edited using unregistered or evaluation copy of rtLib valid for testing or development purposes only. To use it for productive or any other purposes please register it. You may purchase the license on
http://www.rtlib.com
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