❓ Hon. Norman Moore questions the Treasurer's oil price forecasts and revenue estimates. Hon. Kim Chance defers detailed answers until the budget, sparking further inquiry.
AnsweredQoN 8Legislative Council
QuestionView source ↗
I refer the Treasurer to his reply to question without notice 1 that he gave yesterday. (1) What is the basis for Treasury forecasting an oil price slump from $US45 a barrel this year to $US30 a barrel next year? (2) Has Treasury updated its budget estimates since the election; and, if so, what is the current estimate for oil prices for the rest of this year and next year? (3) Has Treasury increased its estimates of revenue from stamp duty on property for this year and next year; and, if so, by how much? Hon KIM CHANCE
AnswerView source ↗
I thank the Leader of the Opposition for providing some notice of this question. (1) The Department of Treasury and Finance takes into account the latest actual price movements and underlying demand and supply factors - based on various published analyses - when advising the government on future oil price levels. Changes in these factors will result in movements in the forecast average oil price for each year. In addition, it is noted on page 18 of the 2004-05 Pre-election Financial Projections Statement that commodity price forecasters, including the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics, have estimated that the oil price currently incorporates a risk premium of around $US15 a barrel, reflecting factors such as security concerns in the Middle East. Other factors unchanged, a lower risk premium would reduce the oil price. (2)-(3) Updated revenue estimates will not be available before the 2005-06 budget. Hon Norman Moore : Why not? Hon KIM CHANCE : Ask the Treasurer.
(1) What is the basis for Treasury forecasting an oil price slump from $US45 a barrel this year to $US30 a barrel next year? (2) Has Treasury updated its budget estimates since the election; and, if so, what is the current estimate for oil prices for the rest of this year and next year? (3) Has Treasury increased its estimates of revenue from stamp duty on property for this year and next year; and, if so, by how much? Hon KIM CHANCE replied: I thank the Leader of the Opposition for providing some notice of this question. (1) The Department of Treasury and Finance takes into account the latest actual price movements and underlying demand and supply factors - based on various published analyses - when advising the government on future oil price levels. Changes in these factors will result in movements in the forecast average oil price for each year. In addition, it is noted on page 18 of the 2004-05 Pre-election Financial Projections Statement that commodity price forecasters, including the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics, have estimated that the oil price currently incorporates a risk premium of around $US15 a barrel, reflecting factors such as security concerns in the Middle East. Other factors unchanged, a lower risk premium would reduce the oil price. (2)-(3) Updated revenue estimates will not be available before the 2005-06 budget. Hon Norman Moore : Why not? Hon KIM CHANCE : Ask the Treasurer.
(2) Has Treasury updated its budget estimates since the election; and, if so, what is the current estimate for oil prices for the rest of this year and next year? (3) Has Treasury increased its estimates of revenue from stamp duty on property for this year and next year; and, if so, by how much? Hon KIM CHANCE replied: I thank the Leader of the Opposition for providing some notice of this question. (1) The Department of Treasury and Finance takes into account the latest actual price movements and underlying demand and supply factors - based on various published analyses - when advising the government on future oil price levels. Changes in these factors will result in movements in the forecast average oil price for each year. In addition, it is noted on page 18 of the 2004-05 Pre-election Financial Projections Statement that commodity price forecasters, including the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics, have estimated that the oil price currently incorporates a risk premium of around $US15 a barrel, reflecting factors such as security concerns in the Middle East. Other factors unchanged, a lower risk premium would reduce the oil price. (2)-(3) Updated revenue estimates will not be available before the 2005-06 budget. Hon Norman Moore : Why not? Hon KIM CHANCE : Ask the Treasurer.
(3) Has Treasury increased its estimates of revenue from stamp duty on property for this year and next year; and, if so, by how much? Hon KIM CHANCE replied: I thank the Leader of the Opposition for providing some notice of this question. (1) The Department of Treasury and Finance takes into account the latest actual price movements and underlying demand and supply factors - based on various published analyses - when advising the government on future oil price levels. Changes in these factors will result in movements in the forecast average oil price for each year. In addition, it is noted on page 18 of the 2004-05 Pre-election Financial Projections Statement that commodity price forecasters, including the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics, have estimated that the oil price currently incorporates a risk premium of around $US15 a barrel, reflecting factors such as security concerns in the Middle East. Other factors unchanged, a lower risk premium would reduce the oil price. (2)-(3) Updated revenue estimates will not be available before the 2005-06 budget. Hon Norman Moore : Why not? Hon KIM CHANCE : Ask the Treasurer.
Hon KIM CHANCE replied: I thank the Leader of the Opposition for providing some notice of this question. (1) The Department of Treasury and Finance takes into account the latest actual price movements and underlying demand and supply factors - based on various published analyses - when advising the government on future oil price levels. Changes in these factors will result in movements in the forecast average oil price for each year. In addition, it is noted on page 18 of the 2004-05 Pre-election Financial Projections Statement that commodity price forecasters, including the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics, have estimated that the oil price currently incorporates a risk premium of around $US15 a barrel, reflecting factors such as security concerns in the Middle East. Other factors unchanged, a lower risk premium would reduce the oil price. (2)-(3) Updated revenue estimates will not be available before the 2005-06 budget. Hon Norman Moore : Why not? Hon KIM CHANCE : Ask the Treasurer.
I thank the Leader of the Opposition for providing some notice of this question. (1) The Department of Treasury and Finance takes into account the latest actual price movements and underlying demand and supply factors - based on various published analyses - when advising the government on future oil price levels. Changes in these factors will result in movements in the forecast average oil price for each year. In addition, it is noted on page 18 of the 2004-05 Pre-election Financial Projections Statement that commodity price forecasters, including the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics, have estimated that the oil price currently incorporates a risk premium of around $US15 a barrel, reflecting factors such as security concerns in the Middle East. Other factors unchanged, a lower risk premium would reduce the oil price. (2)-(3) Updated revenue estimates will not be available before the 2005-06 budget. Hon Norman Moore : Why not? Hon KIM CHANCE : Ask the Treasurer.
(1) The Department of Treasury and Finance takes into account the latest actual price movements and underlying demand and supply factors - based on various published analyses - when advising the government on future oil price levels. Changes in these factors will result in movements in the forecast average oil price for each year. In addition, it is noted on page 18 of the 2004-05 Pre-election Financial Projections Statement that commodity price forecasters, including the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics, have estimated that the oil price currently incorporates a risk premium of around $US15 a barrel, reflecting factors such as security concerns in the Middle East. Other factors unchanged, a lower risk premium would reduce the oil price. (2)-(3) Updated revenue estimates will not be available before the 2005-06 budget. Hon Norman Moore : Why not? Hon KIM CHANCE : Ask the Treasurer.
(2)-(3) Updated revenue estimates will not be available before the 2005-06 budget. Hon Norman Moore : Why not? Hon KIM CHANCE : Ask the Treasurer.
Hon Norman Moore : Why not? Hon KIM CHANCE : Ask the Treasurer.
Hon KIM CHANCE : Ask the Treasurer.
(1) What is the basis for Treasury forecasting an oil price slump from $US45 a barrel this year to $US30 a barrel next year? (2) Has Treasury updated its budget estimates since the election; and, if so, what is the current estimate for oil prices for the rest of this year and next year? (3) Has Treasury increased its estimates of revenue from stamp duty on property for this year and next year; and, if so, by how much? Hon KIM CHANCE replied: I thank the Leader of the Opposition for providing some notice of this question. (1) The Department of Treasury and Finance takes into account the latest actual price movements and underlying demand and supply factors - based on various published analyses - when advising the government on future oil price levels. Changes in these factors will result in movements in the forecast average oil price for each year. In addition, it is noted on page 18 of the 2004-05 Pre-election Financial Projections Statement that commodity price forecasters, including the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics, have estimated that the oil price currently incorporates a risk premium of around $US15 a barrel, reflecting factors such as security concerns in the Middle East. Other factors unchanged, a lower risk premium would reduce the oil price. (2)-(3) Updated revenue estimates will not be available before the 2005-06 budget. Hon Norman Moore : Why not? Hon KIM CHANCE : Ask the Treasurer.
(2) Has Treasury updated its budget estimates since the election; and, if so, what is the current estimate for oil prices for the rest of this year and next year? (3) Has Treasury increased its estimates of revenue from stamp duty on property for this year and next year; and, if so, by how much? Hon KIM CHANCE replied: I thank the Leader of the Opposition for providing some notice of this question. (1) The Department of Treasury and Finance takes into account the latest actual price movements and underlying demand and supply factors - based on various published analyses - when advising the government on future oil price levels. Changes in these factors will result in movements in the forecast average oil price for each year. In addition, it is noted on page 18 of the 2004-05 Pre-election Financial Projections Statement that commodity price forecasters, including the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics, have estimated that the oil price currently incorporates a risk premium of around $US15 a barrel, reflecting factors such as security concerns in the Middle East. Other factors unchanged, a lower risk premium would reduce the oil price. (2)-(3) Updated revenue estimates will not be available before the 2005-06 budget. Hon Norman Moore : Why not? Hon KIM CHANCE : Ask the Treasurer.
(3) Has Treasury increased its estimates of revenue from stamp duty on property for this year and next year; and, if so, by how much? Hon KIM CHANCE replied: I thank the Leader of the Opposition for providing some notice of this question. (1) The Department of Treasury and Finance takes into account the latest actual price movements and underlying demand and supply factors - based on various published analyses - when advising the government on future oil price levels. Changes in these factors will result in movements in the forecast average oil price for each year. In addition, it is noted on page 18 of the 2004-05 Pre-election Financial Projections Statement that commodity price forecasters, including the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics, have estimated that the oil price currently incorporates a risk premium of around $US15 a barrel, reflecting factors such as security concerns in the Middle East. Other factors unchanged, a lower risk premium would reduce the oil price. (2)-(3) Updated revenue estimates will not be available before the 2005-06 budget. Hon Norman Moore : Why not? Hon KIM CHANCE : Ask the Treasurer.
Hon KIM CHANCE replied: I thank the Leader of the Opposition for providing some notice of this question. (1) The Department of Treasury and Finance takes into account the latest actual price movements and underlying demand and supply factors - based on various published analyses - when advising the government on future oil price levels. Changes in these factors will result in movements in the forecast average oil price for each year. In addition, it is noted on page 18 of the 2004-05 Pre-election Financial Projections Statement that commodity price forecasters, including the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics, have estimated that the oil price currently incorporates a risk premium of around $US15 a barrel, reflecting factors such as security concerns in the Middle East. Other factors unchanged, a lower risk premium would reduce the oil price. (2)-(3) Updated revenue estimates will not be available before the 2005-06 budget. Hon Norman Moore : Why not? Hon KIM CHANCE : Ask the Treasurer.
I thank the Leader of the Opposition for providing some notice of this question. (1) The Department of Treasury and Finance takes into account the latest actual price movements and underlying demand and supply factors - based on various published analyses - when advising the government on future oil price levels. Changes in these factors will result in movements in the forecast average oil price for each year. In addition, it is noted on page 18 of the 2004-05 Pre-election Financial Projections Statement that commodity price forecasters, including the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics, have estimated that the oil price currently incorporates a risk premium of around $US15 a barrel, reflecting factors such as security concerns in the Middle East. Other factors unchanged, a lower risk premium would reduce the oil price. (2)-(3) Updated revenue estimates will not be available before the 2005-06 budget. Hon Norman Moore : Why not? Hon KIM CHANCE : Ask the Treasurer.
(1) The Department of Treasury and Finance takes into account the latest actual price movements and underlying demand and supply factors - based on various published analyses - when advising the government on future oil price levels. Changes in these factors will result in movements in the forecast average oil price for each year. In addition, it is noted on page 18 of the 2004-05 Pre-election Financial Projections Statement that commodity price forecasters, including the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics, have estimated that the oil price currently incorporates a risk premium of around $US15 a barrel, reflecting factors such as security concerns in the Middle East. Other factors unchanged, a lower risk premium would reduce the oil price. (2)-(3) Updated revenue estimates will not be available before the 2005-06 budget. Hon Norman Moore : Why not? Hon KIM CHANCE : Ask the Treasurer.
(2)-(3) Updated revenue estimates will not be available before the 2005-06 budget. Hon Norman Moore : Why not? Hon KIM CHANCE : Ask the Treasurer.
Hon Norman Moore : Why not? Hon KIM CHANCE : Ask the Treasurer.
Hon KIM CHANCE : Ask the Treasurer.
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