❓ Mr. Kirkup questions the Minister for Health about COVID-19 modelling for WA, similar to NSW estimates. The Minister responds with details on modelling from the Peter Doherty Institute and the importance of containment measures.
AnsweredQoN 138Legislative Assembly
QuestionView source ↗
CORONAVIRUS —
MODELLING
138. Mr Z.R.F. KIRKUP to the Minister for Health:
I refer —
Ms S.E. Winton interjected.
The SPEAKER : Member for
Wanneroo, I call you to order for the second time. It is not funny. It is a serious
issue.
Mr Z.R.F. KIRKUP : I refer to
the Premier's unwillingness, or inability, yesterday to provide
estimated figures on coronavirus numbers. I note that in New South Wales, the
Chief Medical Officer today estimated that 1.5 million people in New South
Wales were likely to become infected. Is the minister in a position to provide
similar modelling or figures to the people of Western Australia?
MODELLING
138. Mr Z.R.F. KIRKUP to the Minister for Health:
I refer —
Ms S.E. Winton interjected.
The SPEAKER : Member for
Wanneroo, I call you to order for the second time. It is not funny. It is a serious
issue.
Mr Z.R.F. KIRKUP : I refer to
the Premier's unwillingness, or inability, yesterday to provide
estimated figures on coronavirus numbers. I note that in New South Wales, the
Chief Medical Officer today estimated that 1.5 million people in New South
Wales were likely to become infected. Is the minister in a position to provide
similar modelling or figures to the people of Western Australia?
AnswerView source ↗
I thank the member for the
question, because it is an important one and goes to the issue of the modelling
around the COVID-19 virus and the way that it is informing the advice that we
get from the Chief Health Officer. The Chief Health Officer is a member of what
is called the Australian Health Protection Principal Committee, which is an
assembly of all the chief health officers and senior medical advisers in the
community, who come together on a daily
basis to consider the advice that they provide to the government. That advice
goes to the question of travel advisories and to the issue of travel
bans and what needs to be done to continue to inform the Western Australian and
the Australian community about how we respond to this virus.
An
outfit called the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity does the
modelling. The member would have heard the Premier's response to
some of the advice that we got from that modelling. If we do nothing, or if we
do not respond appropriately, we will see this virus start to pick up in late
April, with sustained community-based transmission taking place in late April
through May, with the view being that it will peak in about August. That is what is so important about what we are doing now,
which is the containment and isolation phase. The more that we can
actually do that, we can get away from these figures that suggest that 25 per
cent of people will get coronavirus. The vast majority of that 25 per cent, if
we are unfortunate enough to see that, will experience mild to bad flu symptoms, and so they will go about their lives.
There is a cohort of the population—between two and three per cent — of older Western Australians or those with
compromised health and immunity for whom this will be very dangerous .
That is why it is so important that we, as a community, respond now. The more
we can do now to contain and isolate, the more we can put off that peak and the
lower that peak will be. It is called flattening the curve. That is why we have to continue to work together. That is
why it is so important that people observe good personal hygiene —handwashing,
by making sure that they take the opportunity to wash their hands regularly;
and good cough and sneeze hygiene, into the crook of their arm or into a tissue
and throw that issue away. Above all, if people are feeling unwell and have
cold and flu–like symptoms, they should make sure that they stay at
home and limit their contact with work and school and their older relatives. It
is so important that we do this, because the longer we can do it, we can make
sure that we minimise the impact on the community.
The member for Dawesville is
pointing to modelling that the Doherty institute continues to update and
continues to inform the AHPPC. That modelling shows that, yes, this could be
very serious if we do not get on top of it now. That is why we have to work
together, and that is what has made the work that the Department of Health is
doing so important.
Remember,
members, we have had over 2 000 people tested in Western Australia, and we have
had nine positive results, all of
which have come from a known source or an overseas source. We have had no
community-based transmission of the virus. Every day we can say that is another
day that we can put off suffering and death within our community.
question, because it is an important one and goes to the issue of the modelling
around the COVID-19 virus and the way that it is informing the advice that we
get from the Chief Health Officer. The Chief Health Officer is a member of what
is called the Australian Health Protection Principal Committee, which is an
assembly of all the chief health officers and senior medical advisers in the
community, who come together on a daily
basis to consider the advice that they provide to the government. That advice
goes to the question of travel advisories and to the issue of travel
bans and what needs to be done to continue to inform the Western Australian and
the Australian community about how we respond to this virus.
An
outfit called the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity does the
modelling. The member would have heard the Premier's response to
some of the advice that we got from that modelling. If we do nothing, or if we
do not respond appropriately, we will see this virus start to pick up in late
April, with sustained community-based transmission taking place in late April
through May, with the view being that it will peak in about August. That is what is so important about what we are doing now,
which is the containment and isolation phase. The more that we can
actually do that, we can get away from these figures that suggest that 25 per
cent of people will get coronavirus. The vast majority of that 25 per cent, if
we are unfortunate enough to see that, will experience mild to bad flu symptoms, and so they will go about their lives.
There is a cohort of the population—between two and three per cent — of older Western Australians or those with
compromised health and immunity for whom this will be very dangerous .
That is why it is so important that we, as a community, respond now. The more
we can do now to contain and isolate, the more we can put off that peak and the
lower that peak will be. It is called flattening the curve. That is why we have to continue to work together. That is
why it is so important that people observe good personal hygiene —handwashing,
by making sure that they take the opportunity to wash their hands regularly;
and good cough and sneeze hygiene, into the crook of their arm or into a tissue
and throw that issue away. Above all, if people are feeling unwell and have
cold and flu–like symptoms, they should make sure that they stay at
home and limit their contact with work and school and their older relatives. It
is so important that we do this, because the longer we can do it, we can make
sure that we minimise the impact on the community.
The member for Dawesville is
pointing to modelling that the Doherty institute continues to update and
continues to inform the AHPPC. That modelling shows that, yes, this could be
very serious if we do not get on top of it now. That is why we have to work
together, and that is what has made the work that the Department of Health is
doing so important.
Remember,
members, we have had over 2 000 people tested in Western Australia, and we have
had nine positive results, all of
which have come from a known source or an overseas source. We have had no
community-based transmission of the virus. Every day we can say that is another
day that we can put off suffering and death within our community.
Explore WA Government Data
Search the full archive in the free dashboard, or query programmatically via API.
Explore more
Government Gazette
Appointments, regulatory notices, planning changes.
Hansard
Debates, questions, speeches and sentiment.
Tabled Papers
Reports and documents tabled in Parliament.
Committees
Committee profiles and recent reports.
Regulations
Subsidiary legislation with filters and summaries.
Bills
Proposed laws and parliamentary progress.
Acts
Current WA legislation and summaries.
Explanatory Memoranda
Bills with EMs (text/PDF) available.
Members
MP profiles, party breakdown and rankings.
Pollie Rankings
Data-driven rankings across 19 categories.
Amendment Chains
Track how schemes and regulations evolve over time.