❓ Mr. Wyatt questions the Treasurer's confidence in the 2014-15 budget's population growth projections, given the Treasurer's public statements suggesting a potentially higher growth rate. The Treasurer affirms his agreement with Treasury's projections, acknowledging potential risks and uncertainties.
AnsweredQoN 356Legislative Assembly
QuestionView source ↗
STATE
BUDGET 2014–15 — PROJECTED POPULATION GROWTH
356. Mr B.S. WYATT to the
Treasurer:
I refer to the Treasurer's statement to the media on
8 May 2014 about the 2.1 per cent population growth projected in the budget. He
said he thought we were going to get higher population growth than 2.1 per
cent, and if the population growth is higher than expected, the government will
have to respond, particularly to hospital demand, school demand and other
things.
(1) What does the Treasurer think actual population growth
will be in 2014–15?
(2) If the
Treasurer is of the view that the state's population growth will be
higher than the finances are predicated on, why did he accept a lower estimate?
(3) What other
projections and estimates in the budget does the Treasurer not agree with?
BUDGET 2014–15 — PROJECTED POPULATION GROWTH
356. Mr B.S. WYATT to the
Treasurer:
I refer to the Treasurer's statement to the media on
8 May 2014 about the 2.1 per cent population growth projected in the budget. He
said he thought we were going to get higher population growth than 2.1 per
cent, and if the population growth is higher than expected, the government will
have to respond, particularly to hospital demand, school demand and other
things.
(1) What does the Treasurer think actual population growth
will be in 2014–15?
(2) If the
Treasurer is of the view that the state's population growth will be
higher than the finances are predicated on, why did he accept a lower estimate?
(3) What other
projections and estimates in the budget does the Treasurer not agree with?
AnswerView source ↗
(1)–(3)
I agree with all the projections in the budget, and on issues like this I leave
it up to Treasury. On this side of the Parliament we do not interfere in the
forecast of an economic nature put together by Treasury. It is Treasury's
responsibility to put those forward and it has done a very learned and thorough
job, as it has done for very many years. I might add that population growth is
very important in this state. It is coming down from over three per cent and
Treasury estimated 2.1 per cent. My view is that in the past Treasury has
underestimated these things, but it is a hard one to think about. As I
indicated in the budget papers, we know that the economy is slowing. A large
number of people are coming off the mining sector and one real question is: how
many of those fly in, fly out workers will go back to where they came from—to
the eastern states or otherwise? I do not know; there are a lot of
uncertainties to that. The issue that the member raises, which is quite
relevant, is the risks that the budget is exposed to, and one of them is higher
population growth than forecast. Others are lower iron ore royalties and a
higher US dollar exchange rate than forecast. These are uncertainties in the
market and in our forecasts. They are discussed in the budget papers and I
accept Treasury's forecast. That is why they are in the budget papers
and I accept them. Any manager has to look at the variations and uncertainties,
and that is what I do. I accept the forecasts. They are my forecasts, they are
Treasury's forecasts, and I accept them as the ones that we were
planning on.
I agree with all the projections in the budget, and on issues like this I leave
it up to Treasury. On this side of the Parliament we do not interfere in the
forecast of an economic nature put together by Treasury. It is Treasury's
responsibility to put those forward and it has done a very learned and thorough
job, as it has done for very many years. I might add that population growth is
very important in this state. It is coming down from over three per cent and
Treasury estimated 2.1 per cent. My view is that in the past Treasury has
underestimated these things, but it is a hard one to think about. As I
indicated in the budget papers, we know that the economy is slowing. A large
number of people are coming off the mining sector and one real question is: how
many of those fly in, fly out workers will go back to where they came from—to
the eastern states or otherwise? I do not know; there are a lot of
uncertainties to that. The issue that the member raises, which is quite
relevant, is the risks that the budget is exposed to, and one of them is higher
population growth than forecast. Others are lower iron ore royalties and a
higher US dollar exchange rate than forecast. These are uncertainties in the
market and in our forecasts. They are discussed in the budget papers and I
accept Treasury's forecast. That is why they are in the budget papers
and I accept them. Any manager has to look at the variations and uncertainties,
and that is what I do. I accept the forecasts. They are my forecasts, they are
Treasury's forecasts, and I accept them as the ones that we were
planning on.
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